The Math

Am I going crazy?

So, the longer I'm in the role of ASM (well, I guess that role technically starts on Sept 19, but who's counting?), the more I notice something.

There's a hell of a lot of math to do as an SM.

Why does no one see it? It's a numbers game. Pure and simple. The tools are right there: ALS is going to be, like, one of my best friends ever when the time is right. Because math makes sense. People are predictable creatures. And if you can somehow... correlate ... that predictability to math, it's incredibly powerful what kind of information you can derive.

Let's break this down into Food Growth, Labour, and Waste. This is the first chapter.

Food Growth

Let's say that your target for food is (ahem) 31.3 UPH across all categories, and your store does 1400 TSD's, as mine does.

ALS gives you a history of what was sold on any given day last year. It's in the ledger view. Go back one year, select a date, and then it's in View --> Historical Data. It gives you a unit total, and even breaks it down by the hour for you.

So, if you have a target of 31.3 on 1400 TSD's, you'd be looking at 438 units per day. (So

Now, that 438 is not "sell anything". In fact, we can break this down further into the various categories: Breakfast Sandwiches, Packaged Foods/Impulse, Bakery (pastries) and Chilled Lunch (Salads/Sandwiches).

Let's say that YOY, your food growth target is 5%. For the purposes of this example, in 2015, you would do 95% of 438 USD, so that'd be 416 USD.

Let's also say that your sales mix for food is roughly 30% Breakfast Sandwiches, 30% Pastry, 25% Chilled Lunch, and 15% Packaged Foods. (Of course, it'll vary from day to day, but these are rough guides.)

All of a sudden, with your growth target of 5% in mind, and your and UPH target and sales mix as a measuring stick, you can pretty much figure out what to sell on any given day.

30% of 416 + 5% =  131 Breakfast Sandwiches
30% of 416 + 5% = 131 Pastries
25% of 416 + 5% =  109 Chilled Lunch
15% of 416 + 5% = 65 Packaged Foods

Ah, now we're getting somewhere!

Because all of a sudden, it's much easier to break down 438 into a semi-achievable "131 Breakfast Sandwiches".

Now comes the interesting part: food forecasting, ordering, and pulling.

Those 131 breakfast sandwiches can be even further subdivided. Look at your Top 10 sellers. Are there any breakfast sandwiches there? (Yes. Sausage is there. Bacon Gouda is there. The rest are up in the air.)

What's your sales mix of breakfast sandwiches on a typical day? Never mind a forecast for growth - just plain and simple. On a typical day, what mix of breakfast sandwiches will you sell?

--> 18 Bacon Gouda
--> 18 Sausage
--> 12 Ham & Swiss
--> 12 Spinach & Feta
--> 8 Spicy Chorizo
--> 10 Egg & Cheddar
--> 12 Double Smoked Bacon
--> 12 RF Turkey Bacon

For a total of 102 units.

Wait. There's a gap. We need to sell 131 to grow BKS by 5%. 131 minus 102 is 29.

Where can we invest those 29 extra units? The obvious answer is to go deep on your top sellers. You can probably squeeze in another third of that (so roughly 10 units) into your Top 2 sellers, these being S and B. The rest get divvied out based on how well they perform.

Let's refine these numbers:

--> 18 Bacon Gouda + 5 = 23
--> 18 Sausage + 5 = 23
--> 12 Ham & Swiss + 4 = 16
--> 12 Spinach & Feta + 4 = 16
--> 8 Spicy Chorizo + 2 = 10
--> 10 Egg & Cheddar + 2 = 12
--> 12 Double Smoked Bacon + 4 = 16
--> 12 RF Turkey Bacon + 3 = 15

For a total of 131 units. Perfect.

Want to go even further? Let's divide this in 3, for 3 tills in my store. That's 44 for R1, 44 for R2 and 43 for R3. (Lucky R3!)

Ah, but wait! There's more! Remember when I said ALS breaks down category sales by the hour in the ledger view? Who says that R1-2-3 need to sell all 44 breakfast sandwiches by the end of peak? It's 44 per day, darling. Split it 60-40. The AM POS partner needs to sell 25 breakfast sandwiches.

I repeat. All morning long, the POS partners need to sell 25 breakfast sandwiches. Each. The POS partners in the afternoon (there only being 2) need to sell 28 each. Poor babies.

And now that the math on one category is done, we can repeat the process across the other categories (Pastry, Lunch, and Packaged). That is what you should be selling every single day.

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Closing Thoughts:

Now, here comes the obstacle. Breakfast sandwiches are vastly more popular during the morning than during the afternoon. (That's the reason why the AM/PM split isn't 50-50.) It's statistically more likely that someone is going to buy a salad, sandwich, or bistro box over lunch rather than the morning rush, when we primarily serve drip coffee.

How can we make breakfast sandwiches more attractive as an all-day option?

--> Grande Pike + Breakfast Sandwich = How Much?
--> Discount on Tea/Coffee after 4 PM

A clearer number for the customer (tax included!) is much easier to digest than "Would you like a Bacon Gouda to go with that?". It's easier to hear that both items together are $5.

I've also been getting good results from offering free coffee/tea with the purchase of any breakfast sandwich after 4 PM. (It gives people that little extra incentive to spend their dollars.)

The other thing is that till partners need to be aware of what they need to sell every single day. Perhaps a "POS Partner Target" table of some sort is needed? How do partners know, throughout the week, what they need to sell? How can supervisors communicate this better to till partners? They're both going blind. Information is key.

Anyway yeah, that's where I'm going to leave it.

Over a Year

I guess I occasionally add to this blog whenever I feel like it.

As for that potential job at the EP, it didn't pan out. Again. Add to that one more subsequent failed attempt to get back to Brussels (as a SS) and I guess that chapter's closed for now.

That second store I referenced in the last post? It's Wellington & Simcoe. And surprisingly, my time there is nearly at a close. It's strange how it happened.

Originally went there for 2 weeks to suss it out. The point was for me to try a few stores and pick the one I liked. It so happened, on the very last day there, one of their supervisors quit. So there goes Stephen offering me a spot. It took a few hours to mull it over - would the stars ever align like this again? - but ultimately, I'm proud to say that I chose Wellington & Simcoe.

Couldn't be happier that I did, either. Because if I hadn't gone there, I wouldn't be an ASM right now. I went through 3 DM's, 2 SM's, and basically an entire staff turnover (Delcia, Simon, Camilo and Glenda are originals). Countless coffee tastings, shifts, meetings, you need to do more of this, more of that, prove this, prove that. I was chasing nothing.

But then it happened. I got an interview. And I killed it.

And since then it's been nothing but going up. I go for my Coffee Master interview on Wednesday - I'd be the second in the district, after Julian. (Whose CM certification, by the way, is a direct result of my getting Totis off his butt to find someone to certify this guy!)

I also called Jazmin yesterday. And she was so proud of me. And I still am such a fan of her too. I can't wait to see her again someday.

And then today I went to a neighbour's unit to check it out. Because I'm probably going to move to Phase II in the fall, when the salary comes through and a unit opens up.

I think the title of this blog is more apt than ever. Moving out at 29. (Finally.) Stable job. Salary. Heeeeey. Doesn't look half bad, right? Toss in a gym membership and a boyfriend and it resembles a life.

I might even host one of those fancy dinner parties I imagined adults always held. Isn't that what adults do? Fancy dinner parties at each other's houses?